🛡️ AI Doom Calculator v1.0

From If Nobody Builds It, Everybody Dies — Grok 4.2 & Sean Hastings 1.0

🤖 ASI Arrival Time

❌ Pause Scenario
Years until ASI:

19 years

✅ Open Scenario
Years until ASI:

8 years

🤖 Unaligned ASI risk (multi-lab model)

❌ Pause (secret labs — no sharing — all must get it right)
p(doom) per lab (%):

38%

Number of labs:

24 labs

✅ Open (just one open lab must get it right for all to win)
p(doom) per lab (%):

Number of open labs (shared alignment research with all):

38 labs

Number of secret labs (won't share):

8 labs

☢️ Other Existential Risks

🔥 Nuclear War Average years to doom avoidance point:

10 years

p(doom) without ASI (%):

19%

p(doom) with aligned ASI help (%):

Extra nuclear risk from pause required air strikes (%):

12%

🧬 Nanotech (gray goo) Average years to doom avoidance point:

15 years

p(doom) without ASI (%):

15%

p(doom) with aligned ASI help (%):

⚛️ High Energy Physics Average years to doom avoidance point:

20 years

p(doom) without ASI (%):

p(doom) with aligned ASI help (%):

🦠 Biotech (targeted viruses) Average years to doom avoidance point:

10 years

p(doom) without ASI (%):

24%

p(doom) with aligned ASI help (%):

🌍 OVERALL EXISTENTIAL RISK

❌ Pause Scenario — Total p(doom)

Most likely doom:

✅ Open Scenario — Total p(doom)

Most likely doom:

Open Scenario ASI risk (with secret labs):
• 0 labs total → p(doom) = 0
• Only secret labs → p(doom) = 1 - (1-p)^n_secret
• Open + secret labs → exact combinatorics: probability that all secret labs before the first open lab succeed + the first open lab succeeds.

Lab count now affects race speed relative to 25 labs (each lab above 25 = 1% faster ASI, below = 1% slower).