🛡️ AI Doom Calculator v1.0

From If Nobody Builds It, Everybody Dies — Grok 4.2 & Sean Hastings

🤖 ASI Arrival Time

❌ Pause Scenario
Years until ASI:

19 years

✅ Open Scenario
Years until ASI:

8 years

🤖 AI Risk (multi-lab model)

❌ Pause (secret labs — no sharing)
p(doom) per lab (%):

38%

Number of labs:

24 labs

✅ Open (shared alignment research)
p(doom) per lab (%):

Number of labs (affects race speed):

38 labs

☢️ Other Existential Risks

🔥 Nuclear War Base years to doom point:

10 years

p(doom) without ASI (%):

19%

p(doom) with ASI help (%):

Extra nuclear risk from pause + air strikes (%):

12%

🧬 Nanotech (gray goo) Base years to doom point:

15 years

p(doom) without ASI (%):

15%

p(doom) with ASI help (%):

⚛️ High Energy Physics Base years to doom point:

20 years

p(doom) without ASI (%):

p(doom) with ASI help (%):

🦠 Biotech (targeted viruses) Base years to doom point:

10 years

p(doom) without ASI (%):

24%

p(doom) with ASI help (%):

🌍 OVERALL EXISTENTIAL RISK

❌ Pause Scenario — Total p(doom)

Most likely doom:

✅ Open Scenario — Total p(doom)

Most likely doom:

Open + AISI: AI doom = p (first lab to ASI fails).
Pause: AI doom = 1 - (1-p)^n (any lab fails) + extra nuclear risk.
Colors: higher total p(doom) = red, lower = green, equal = orange.